After nine months of waiting, it arrives – Schedule 3 of Places to Grow as it pertains to Barrie, Orillia and Simcoe County.

And although a series of numbers may sound mundane, in municipal planning circles these are just as exciting as the birth of a baby. Indeed, these numbers give us an early indication of how growth in the area will shape up over the next 25 years.

Their impact on the family that is Simcoe County is phenomenal.

For almost a year, municipal politicians have been wringing their hands and theoretically discussing a series of growth scenarios that answer where will a projected 227,000 new residents settle between now and 2031.

Where, therefore, will services – roads, water, wastewater, recreation centres, libraries, etc. – be needed?

Late last Thursday afternoon, the Ministry of Public Infrastructure Renewal sent a letter to Barrie, Orillia and Simcoe County which pegged Barrie’s population at 180,000 (up from the current 135,000) within its current boundaries, Orillia’s at 41,000 and Simcoe County’s at 406,000 – a figure which does not include another 40,000 that’s literally up for grabs.

The power broker here is Simcoe County. That 40,000 will be the new number county politicians and planners work with as they conclude the growth-management steering process. Indeed, the time for serious work is now, as the county must update its Official Plan, the key planning document that guides growth over the long term, by June. To do so requires the county to have policy directions in place by March.

The way in which the PIR ministry released the numbers reinforces Simcoe County’s role as a mediator and leader. It fits perfectly with last April’s provincial directive to Simcoe County to lead the process; both the PIR and the municipal affairs and housing ministers told local politicians to work together or risk losing out on grants for roads, bridges and other infrastructure to support a growing population.

Growth is expensive and it has to be done right – not only so residents can get the best value for their tax dollars, but also to protect our environment and preserve agricultural land. These are the key themes in Places to Grow, which discourages sprawl, encourages use of existing infrastructure through intensification and the creation of “complete communities,” places where people can live, work and play.

The county is in the driver’s seat. Time to figure out where this bus is going.